Fix the Fan Line

“You take the two top teams in each conference and you have a playoff system. It will never be done because it’s too simple and newspapers wouldn’t have anything to write about.” - November 5, 2008

Okay, our first two-year-old has stepped up to the plate.  You think you have a simple solution on your hands?

Do you mean just the BCS conferences?  That makes a 12-team playoff.  That doesn’t work out evenly into bracket format, so who gets the byes?  What about Utah?  They’re undefeated and ranked #8.  Shouldn’t they get a chance to play for the National Championship?

If you don’t mean just the BCS conferences, that makes a 24-team playoff.  Again, who gets byes?  How are you going to find the time to play all of those games?  Will fans travel to each round of the playoffs?  Where will the games be played?  Troy is the 2nd place team in the Sun Belt Conference.  They’re currently 5-3.  Do they really deserve a chance to win the National Championship?

What about Notre Dame?  Do they need to finally join a conference?  Are they always included in your tournament?  Never included in your tournament?

Finally, since the Big 10 is “super-weak” this year, does 2nd place Ohio State / Michigan State really deserve a shot at the National Championship, when Oklahoma (3rd place in the “super-strong” Big 12 conference stays at home?

What about the bowl games?  The Rose Bowl still wants to exist, and they would really prefer to see a Big 10 team and a Pac 10 team square off.  Have you taken them into consideration?

There’s really nothing simple about it.

I’m fully aware that I haven’t been posting near as frequently as I was a month ago.  With Penn State continuing to win and now with the most-recent BCS polls having been released, it seems that all the Fan Line can talk about is the rankings and why they’re right or why they’re wrong.

They’re Right!

“All Penn State had to do was schedule a decent opponent that wasn’t Coastal Carolina or Temple. They would be No. 1 if that would have happened.” - November 4, 2008

We’ve killed the strength of schedule point on here.  Everybody plays their “cupcake” (where has that term gone?).  Oregon State is in the hunt to win the Pac 10.  Ohio State was BCS #9 when Penn State played the Buckeyes.  Michigan State could quite possibly be Top 15 in the BCS by the time Penn State plays that Spartans.

“How could Penn State be No. 3? Oklahoma could put their second-string team in and beat them handily.” - November 4, 2008

Maybe they should have played those second-stringers against Texas?

They’re Wrong!

“These BCS rankings are a joke. The Big 12 cannot play defense, and USC always seems to lose their focus and are never a major player. Penn State should be ranked No. 2 in these rankings ahead of an offensively minded Texas Tech squad.” - November 4, 2008

It really doesn’t matter right now.  If Texas Tech didn’t jump Penn State, but then proceeded to beat Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and win the Big 12 Championship game… they would have jumped Penn State eventually.  Why not now?

“How can you possibly jump five spots in the rankings ahead of a team that is undefeated, just because that team was off?” - November 4, 2008

See above.

“I cannot believe that Texas Tech jumped from 7 to 2 after barely beating Texas at home. Penn State should be No. 2. The BCS just made a big mistake.” - November 4, 2008

See above.

“Congratulations to Texas Tech for beating Texas in an instant classic. That, however, does not justify their jumping of five spots ahead of Penn State.” - November 4, 2008

See above.

“Alabama has only one win against a ranked team this year, the same as Penn State. The only reason they are ranked ahead of them is because of an opening win against a highly overrated Clemson team. These rankings are garbage that make no sense.” - November 4, 2008

Good job.  Somebody read their Black Shoe Diaries.

“I am done with college football until a playoff system arrives.” - November 4, 2008

Don’t hold your breath.

“A 2-year-old could make a better system for determining a national champion.” - November 4, 2008

OK.  Then what’s your system?

They Don’t Matter!

“As a Penn State fan, I would like to thank the BCS for keeping us ranked No. 3. This guarantees that we will not be playing in a trap game, rather, the team will be playing their hearts out on every play for the rest of the season.” - November 4, 2008

“Guarantees” scares me, but in general, I agree.

On this note, I received this statement in an e-mail from the Penn State Alumni Association yesterday: “Official Penn State Bowl Tour” Planned - With the Nittany Lions’ hard fought victory over the Buckeyes, Penn State fans know JoePa’s 2008 team is going to a BCS bowl-and hoping that it will be the BCS Championship Game. But whether it’s Miami on Jan. 8, Pasadena on Jan. 1, or somewhere else, the Penn State Alumni Association is already planning the “Official Penn State Bowl Tour.”

Do we really know that? Hmmm.

“Penn State fans need to realize that the rankings right now do not mean much. It is where you are in another month. That is when it matters.” - November 4, 2008

Thank you.

You’re Wrong!

“Penn State fans, you should be lucky that the BCS doesn’t factor in strength of schedule anymore. Penn State would be ranked No. 5 if that were the case.” - November 4, 2008

Strength of schedule is in there, my friend.  It’s built into the computer rankings, and that’s why Penn State is ranked No. 4 (computers) instead of No. 2 (humans).

I can’t wait for tomorrow!  Bring on another day of endless and meaningless BCS banter, strength of schedule arguments, hypothetical bowl game matchups and outcomes, and additional nonsense.  It’s going to be great.

“Penn State’s No. 3 ranking is completely bogus. They have played no one, and the Big Ten is one of the weakest conferences in college football.” - October 31, 2008

Here were my predictions for key arguments from the Fan Line following Penn State’s win over Ohio State.

“The Big Ten is still super-weak this year.  Penn State got lucky that Pryor fumbled.  How can Penn State be ranked #3 when they haven’t played anybody respectable other than Ohio State?  Ohio State is just another cupcake.  Paterno is a manager, not a coach.”

This call covers two of my predictions.  I had a hunch that Ohio State would qualify as another “nobody.”

As far as strength of conferences, don’t let ESPN brainwash you too much.  The Big 10 is actually one of the strongest conferences in college football.  I calculate it as 3rd strongest.

Big 12 - 5 teams in the Top 25.  4 of them ranked in the Top 10.
SEC - 4 teams in the Top 25.  3 of them ranked in the Top 10.
Big 10 - 4 teams in the Top 25.  1 ranked in the Top 10.
ACC - 3 - teams ranked in the Top 25.  Florida State leads the charge at #16.
Mountain West - 3 teams ranked in the Top 25 (Utah, TCU, and BYU)
Pac 10 - 2 teams ranked in the Top 25.  USC is ranked #7.  Otherwise, this is an empty conference this year.
Big East - South Florida is the only ranked team (#24), and they’ll be exiting the polls next week.  The UConn/West Virginia winner should enter the Top 25, and Cincinnati may have a shot, and Pitt could have a shot with a win over Notre Dame.
WAC - Boise State is coasting through the WAC.  Only their game against Fresno State will stop them from running the table.
Mid American - Ball State is coasting through the MAC.  Only their game against Central Michigan will stop them from running the table.
CUSA - Tulsa is still undefeated in Conference USA.  Can they survive Arkansas this weekend?

“This Ohio State-Penn State game is one of the most boring I have ever seen” - October 27, 2008

Saturday night’s game was a great football game between two of the Top 10 teams in the country.  Defense is the reason that you didn’t enjoy the game.  Go back to watching the Big 12 if you don’t like it.

“Let’s tell it like it is — it took a fumble by a rookie quarterback and two penalties for Penn State to squeak by Ohio State.” - October 27, 2008

Okay.  What’s your point?  According to Jim Tressel, Terrelle Pryor is Ohio State’s best quarterback, so he’s that quartback that was used.  Penn State forced Pryor to fumble in the fourth quarter, and the fumble turned out to be a turning point in the game.  Turnovers and penalties are a part of every football game, and they’re often difference-makers in close games.  Thanks for your analysis.

Penn State 48

Wisconsin 7

First, for good measure…

“Nearly every game Penn State has lost the last few years can be traced to the fact that its offensive line got pushed around. Just wait until Penn State travels to Ohio State and Wisconsin this year. Both of those games will be decided by the offensive line, and you can guess which one will come out ahead.” - July 1, 2008

Hmm, let me guess.

“If you look at all the fluff that Joe Paterno has on the schedule, it’s pretty hard not to have a decent season. Even though they will lose to Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, his schedule is set up for a bowl game.” - August 31, 2008

One down.

“Penn State’s weak nonconference schedule coinciding with a weak Big Ten guarantees them eight or nine wins. Unfortunately, they will lose to Ohio State and Wisconsin and be left playing in a bowl game that means nothing.” - September 9, 2008

Unfortunately, you’re wrong.

“With the exception of possibly Wisconsin, the Big Ten does not have a legitimate top 25 team.” - September 15, 2008

So, Wisconsin is “legitimate,” right?  See below.

“Play someone, guys. Your time is coming. You play Wisconsin [tonight] and Ohio State later on. You shouldn’t have to wait until the middle of the season to play someone.” - October 11, 2008

So, Wisconsin is “someone,” right?  See below.

“How did Penn State get in the Top 25? They haven’t played anybody with a winning record.” - October 11, 2008

At the time of this call, Illinois was 3-2.  Now they’re 3-3.  For what it’s worth, Coastal Carolina was 3-2 at the time of this call.  Now they’re 3-3.

“Army, Navy, Air Force and Appalachian State could probably beat half of the teams on Penn State’s schedule.” - October 11, 2008

Temple 35 - Army 7

“I’ve been watching these college football games today and I would like to know how these announcers can say Penn State is the team to beat in the Big Ten when Penn State hasn’t played anybody who is ranked. How in the world can you get the rankings these guys get? They haven’t played anybody.” - October 12, 2008

See how teams rise in polls.

“Good job, Penn State, on the win. But, once again, this shows how weak the Big Ten is. The Big 12, by far, is the best conference in college football.” - October 12, 2008

A few weeks ago it was the SEC.  What happened?  Remember that many Big 12 teams still have pretty records because the Big 12 just started their conference schedule last week, while the SEC teams have been beating up on each other for 3 weeks now.

Hello, Penn State fans. Don’t get excited about beating Wisconsin because Wisconsin won’t be ranked again. There will be one ranked Big Ten team besides Penn State and that will be Ohio State. Illinois? Real tough game. They lost to Minnesota. The Big Ten is the weakest conference outside the Sun Belt that I’ve seen. - October 12, 2008

How about the Pac 10, Big East, and ACC?

Next weekend, Michigan travels to State College.  But “don’t get too excited Penn State fans.”  Michigan is just another cupcake, and the Big Ten is horrible, and just wait until they play Ohio State, and Wisconsin and Illinois were terrible opponents, and Joe Paterno isn’t even coaching so it doesn’t matter that he’s in the press box, and there’s no reason that Penn State should be ranked in the Top 5, and the SEC and Big 12 are awesome, and why isn’t BYU ranked #1 anyways?  So, don’t get too excited Penn State fans.

“Sure, the Big Ten can handle second-division schools in football, like Coastal Carolina, Western Kentucky, Maine, Northern Illinois, Youngstown State, Akron and Northern Colorado. But the only three schools the Big Ten played, Missouri, Utah and Cal, all whipped their fannies. The Big Ten is pathetic.” - September 2, 2008

You missed Syracuse. While still not the strongest opponent, Syracuse is a BCS opponent, and Northwestern defeated Syracuse 30-10.

It wasn’t a great opening weekend for the Big Ten, but when I rank the BCS conferences based on their performances last weekend, the Big Ten doesn’t show up at the bottom.

1. SEC

The SEC certainly stated their case as the top conference in college football.  The SEC went 10-2 last weekend.  Only 3 of those wins were against I-AA opponents (Georgia Southern, Western Illinois, and Appalachian State).  3 of those wins were against BCS conference opponents (Louisville, NC State, and Clemson).  Tennessee’s overtime loss to UCLA and Mississippi State’s loss to Louisiana Tech were the only blemishes on the SEC’s record last weekend.

2. Big 12

The Big 12 followed close behind.  They also went 10-2 last weekend.  3 of those wins were against I-AA opponents (South Dakota State, Tennessee-Chattanooga, and Eastern Washington).  2 wins were against BCS opponents (Illinois and Washington State).  The only Big 12 losses were Baylor to Wake Forest and Texas A&M to Arkansas State.

3. Pac 10

The Pac 10 is a bit more difficult to judge because some schools started their conference schedule last weekend.  The Pac 10 went 7-3 overall and 5-1 outside the conference.  One win was against a I-AA opponent (Northern Arizona).  3 wins were against BCS opponents, including Cal’s win over Michigan State and UCLA’s win over Tennessee.

4. Big 10

The Big 10 went 7-3 last weekend.  3 wins were against I-AA opponents (Maine, Youngstown State, and Coastal Carolina).  I-A wins were tallied against Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, Syracuse, and Akron.  Syracuse was the only win against a BCS opponent.  The Big Ten lost three tough games: Illinois to Missouri, Michigan to Utah, and Michigan State to Cal.

5. ACC

The ACC went 7-4 last weekend.  Five wins were against I-AA opponents (Delaware, James Madison, Jacksonville State, McNeese State, and Charleston Southern).  I-A wins were tallied against Kent State and Baylor, with Baylor being the only win against a BCS opponent.  The two biggest concerns for the ACC were a) Clemson getting crushed at home by Alabama and b) Virginia Tech getting upset by East Carolina.  Virginia predictably lost to USC and NC State predictably lost to South Carolina.

6. Big East

The Big East went 4-4 last weekend.  All four wins were against I-AA opponents (Eastern Kentucky, Hofstra, Tennessee-Martin, and Villanova).  Louisville lost to Kentucky.  Pitt lost to Bowling Green.  Rutgers lost to Fresno State.  Syracuse lost to Northwestern.