Fix the Fan Line

“Penn State’s No. 3 ranking is completely bogus. They have played no one, and the Big Ten is one of the weakest conferences in college football.” - October 31, 2008

Here were my predictions for key arguments from the Fan Line following Penn State’s win over Ohio State.

“The Big Ten is still super-weak this year.  Penn State got lucky that Pryor fumbled.  How can Penn State be ranked #3 when they haven’t played anybody respectable other than Ohio State?  Ohio State is just another cupcake.  Paterno is a manager, not a coach.”

This call covers two of my predictions.  I had a hunch that Ohio State would qualify as another “nobody.”

As far as strength of conferences, don’t let ESPN brainwash you too much.  The Big 10 is actually one of the strongest conferences in college football.  I calculate it as 3rd strongest.

Big 12 - 5 teams in the Top 25.  4 of them ranked in the Top 10.
SEC - 4 teams in the Top 25.  3 of them ranked in the Top 10.
Big 10 - 4 teams in the Top 25.  1 ranked in the Top 10.
ACC - 3 - teams ranked in the Top 25.  Florida State leads the charge at #16.
Mountain West - 3 teams ranked in the Top 25 (Utah, TCU, and BYU)
Pac 10 - 2 teams ranked in the Top 25.  USC is ranked #7.  Otherwise, this is an empty conference this year.
Big East - South Florida is the only ranked team (#24), and they’ll be exiting the polls next week.  The UConn/West Virginia winner should enter the Top 25, and Cincinnati may have a shot, and Pitt could have a shot with a win over Notre Dame.
WAC - Boise State is coasting through the WAC.  Only their game against Fresno State will stop them from running the table.
Mid American - Ball State is coasting through the MAC.  Only their game against Central Michigan will stop them from running the table.
CUSA - Tulsa is still undefeated in Conference USA.  Can they survive Arkansas this weekend?

Penn State 48

Wisconsin 7

First, for good measure…

“Nearly every game Penn State has lost the last few years can be traced to the fact that its offensive line got pushed around. Just wait until Penn State travels to Ohio State and Wisconsin this year. Both of those games will be decided by the offensive line, and you can guess which one will come out ahead.” - July 1, 2008

Hmm, let me guess.

“If you look at all the fluff that Joe Paterno has on the schedule, it’s pretty hard not to have a decent season. Even though they will lose to Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, his schedule is set up for a bowl game.” - August 31, 2008

One down.

“Penn State’s weak nonconference schedule coinciding with a weak Big Ten guarantees them eight or nine wins. Unfortunately, they will lose to Ohio State and Wisconsin and be left playing in a bowl game that means nothing.” - September 9, 2008

Unfortunately, you’re wrong.

“With the exception of possibly Wisconsin, the Big Ten does not have a legitimate top 25 team.” - September 15, 2008

So, Wisconsin is “legitimate,” right?  See below.

“Play someone, guys. Your time is coming. You play Wisconsin [tonight] and Ohio State later on. You shouldn’t have to wait until the middle of the season to play someone.” - October 11, 2008

So, Wisconsin is “someone,” right?  See below.

“How did Penn State get in the Top 25? They haven’t played anybody with a winning record.” - October 11, 2008

At the time of this call, Illinois was 3-2.  Now they’re 3-3.  For what it’s worth, Coastal Carolina was 3-2 at the time of this call.  Now they’re 3-3.

“Army, Navy, Air Force and Appalachian State could probably beat half of the teams on Penn State’s schedule.” - October 11, 2008

Temple 35 - Army 7

“I’ve been watching these college football games today and I would like to know how these announcers can say Penn State is the team to beat in the Big Ten when Penn State hasn’t played anybody who is ranked. How in the world can you get the rankings these guys get? They haven’t played anybody.” - October 12, 2008

See how teams rise in polls.

“Good job, Penn State, on the win. But, once again, this shows how weak the Big Ten is. The Big 12, by far, is the best conference in college football.” - October 12, 2008

A few weeks ago it was the SEC.  What happened?  Remember that many Big 12 teams still have pretty records because the Big 12 just started their conference schedule last week, while the SEC teams have been beating up on each other for 3 weeks now.

Hello, Penn State fans. Don’t get excited about beating Wisconsin because Wisconsin won’t be ranked again. There will be one ranked Big Ten team besides Penn State and that will be Ohio State. Illinois? Real tough game. They lost to Minnesota. The Big Ten is the weakest conference outside the Sun Belt that I’ve seen. - October 12, 2008

How about the Pac 10, Big East, and ACC?

Next weekend, Michigan travels to State College.  But “don’t get too excited Penn State fans.”  Michigan is just another cupcake, and the Big Ten is horrible, and just wait until they play Ohio State, and Wisconsin and Illinois were terrible opponents, and Joe Paterno isn’t even coaching so it doesn’t matter that he’s in the press box, and there’s no reason that Penn State should be ranked in the Top 5, and the SEC and Big 12 are awesome, and why isn’t BYU ranked #1 anyways?  So, don’t get too excited Penn State fans.

“Sure, the Big Ten can handle second-division schools in football, like Coastal Carolina, Western Kentucky, Maine, Northern Illinois, Youngstown State, Akron and Northern Colorado. But the only three schools the Big Ten played, Missouri, Utah and Cal, all whipped their fannies. The Big Ten is pathetic.” - September 2, 2008

You missed Syracuse. While still not the strongest opponent, Syracuse is a BCS opponent, and Northwestern defeated Syracuse 30-10.

It wasn’t a great opening weekend for the Big Ten, but when I rank the BCS conferences based on their performances last weekend, the Big Ten doesn’t show up at the bottom.

1. SEC

The SEC certainly stated their case as the top conference in college football.  The SEC went 10-2 last weekend.  Only 3 of those wins were against I-AA opponents (Georgia Southern, Western Illinois, and Appalachian State).  3 of those wins were against BCS conference opponents (Louisville, NC State, and Clemson).  Tennessee’s overtime loss to UCLA and Mississippi State’s loss to Louisiana Tech were the only blemishes on the SEC’s record last weekend.

2. Big 12

The Big 12 followed close behind.  They also went 10-2 last weekend.  3 of those wins were against I-AA opponents (South Dakota State, Tennessee-Chattanooga, and Eastern Washington).  2 wins were against BCS opponents (Illinois and Washington State).  The only Big 12 losses were Baylor to Wake Forest and Texas A&M to Arkansas State.

3. Pac 10

The Pac 10 is a bit more difficult to judge because some schools started their conference schedule last weekend.  The Pac 10 went 7-3 overall and 5-1 outside the conference.  One win was against a I-AA opponent (Northern Arizona).  3 wins were against BCS opponents, including Cal’s win over Michigan State and UCLA’s win over Tennessee.

4. Big 10

The Big 10 went 7-3 last weekend.  3 wins were against I-AA opponents (Maine, Youngstown State, and Coastal Carolina).  I-A wins were tallied against Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, Syracuse, and Akron.  Syracuse was the only win against a BCS opponent.  The Big Ten lost three tough games: Illinois to Missouri, Michigan to Utah, and Michigan State to Cal.

5. ACC

The ACC went 7-4 last weekend.  Five wins were against I-AA opponents (Delaware, James Madison, Jacksonville State, McNeese State, and Charleston Southern).  I-A wins were tallied against Kent State and Baylor, with Baylor being the only win against a BCS opponent.  The two biggest concerns for the ACC were a) Clemson getting crushed at home by Alabama and b) Virginia Tech getting upset by East Carolina.  Virginia predictably lost to USC and NC State predictably lost to South Carolina.

6. Big East

The Big East went 4-4 last weekend.  All four wins were against I-AA opponents (Eastern Kentucky, Hofstra, Tennessee-Martin, and Villanova).  Louisville lost to Kentucky.  Pitt lost to Bowling Green.  Rutgers lost to Fresno State.  Syracuse lost to Northwestern.

“Just some information for the Big Ten fans. They have won five out of 15 bowl games in the last two years, and one of those wins was Purdue having to squeak out one over Central Michigan. Meanwhile, the Big East has won eight out of 10 bowl games.” - August 20, 2008

Since when have bowl wins become the way to evaluate the strength of a conference?

Ironically, you mention another, possibly more important factor in your call, but you neglect to include it in your argument. How about bowl appearances? Aren’t bowl appearances a good measure of the number of quality football programs in a conference? Doesn’t a bowl appearance signify a quality season (at least 6-6) for a team, as opposed to a bowl win which is just a single game against an unknown opponent some 30 days after a team’s final regular season game?

In two years, the Big Ten has seen 15 teams in bowl games, while the Big East has seen only 10. The Big Ten has 11 teams, and the Big East only has 8 teams, but the Big Ten still owns a higher Bowls/Teams ratio.

The final polls are an even better measure of the strength of a conference.

2007 - #5 Ohio State, #6 West Virginia, #17 Cincinatti, #18 Michigan, #20 Illinois, #24 Wisconsin

2006 - #2 Ohio State, #6 Louisville, #7 Wisconsin, #8 Michigan, #10 West Virginia, #12 Rutgers, #24 Penn State

Preseason 2008 - #2 Ohio State, #8 West Virginia, #13 Wisconsin, #19 South Florida, #20 Illinois, #22 Penn State, #25 Pittsburgh

“To the caller who said nobody in the nation plays a tougher schedule then the three games Penn State has, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin in the Big Ten … that’s the problem. You are talking about the Big Ten, and other than those three there are none.” - August 11, 2008

Penn State’s 2008 opponents ranked in the pre-season polls.

#3 - Ohio State

#12 - Wisconsin

#19 - Illinois

#24 - Michigan

Others Receiving Votes: Oregon State, Michigan State

“I saw Penn State’s record since joining the conference is 73-43. If that isn’t mediocrity, I don’t know what is. What ever happened to the good program?” - July 17, 2008

It seems as though your definition of mediocrity needs some work. Let’s start with the trusty dictionary.

mediocre - adjective - of only moderate quality; not very good

So, by your standards, a 73-43 record (.608) is mediocre, or not very good.

Glancing at this year’s Major League Baseball standings at the All-Star break, every single team is mediocre or worse. Even the two teams with the best record in baseball (the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Chicago Cubs) can’t quite achieve mediocre status at 57-38 (.600).

Since 1993, when Penn State joined the Big Ten, only Ohio State and Michigan have achieved better marks than Penn State’s 73-43. All 8 other Big Ten programs have been worse than mediocre. Try telling that to some Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue fans.

Whatever happened to the good program? Stuck in mediocrity, some would say. By your standards, maybe that’s not such a bad thing.