Fix the Fan Line

“If Utah and Boise State wind up as the only undefeated football teams in the country, then what?” - November 25, 2008

It’s difficult to say.  If you’re suggesting that either of those teams should play in the National Championship Game, please just pack your bags and go home.

I think it’s likely that Utah will get invited to a BCS bowl, but it depends a bit on how the rest of the regular season pans out.

Here is a worst-case scenario (for both Utah and the BCS):

Oregon State wins the Pac 10 and Missouri wins the Big 12.  That would mean that 4 of the 10 BCS spots would be occupied by teams outside of the Top 10 (thank you Big East and ACC).

With only 6 spots remaining, two of them would need to go to Penn State (Big 10 Champion) and the Alabama vs. Florida winner (SEC Champion).

That leaves four remaining spots, and it’s awfully tempting to take: USC, the Alabama vs. Florida loser, and a 2nd Big 12 team.

The leaves one BCS spot and I think Utah would claim it.

I’m fully aware that I haven’t been posting near as frequently as I was a month ago.  With Penn State continuing to win and now with the most-recent BCS polls having been released, it seems that all the Fan Line can talk about is the rankings and why they’re right or why they’re wrong.

They’re Right!

“All Penn State had to do was schedule a decent opponent that wasn’t Coastal Carolina or Temple. They would be No. 1 if that would have happened.” - November 4, 2008

We’ve killed the strength of schedule point on here.  Everybody plays their “cupcake” (where has that term gone?).  Oregon State is in the hunt to win the Pac 10.  Ohio State was BCS #9 when Penn State played the Buckeyes.  Michigan State could quite possibly be Top 15 in the BCS by the time Penn State plays that Spartans.

“How could Penn State be No. 3? Oklahoma could put their second-string team in and beat them handily.” - November 4, 2008

Maybe they should have played those second-stringers against Texas?

They’re Wrong!

“These BCS rankings are a joke. The Big 12 cannot play defense, and USC always seems to lose their focus and are never a major player. Penn State should be ranked No. 2 in these rankings ahead of an offensively minded Texas Tech squad.” - November 4, 2008

It really doesn’t matter right now.  If Texas Tech didn’t jump Penn State, but then proceeded to beat Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and win the Big 12 Championship game… they would have jumped Penn State eventually.  Why not now?

“How can you possibly jump five spots in the rankings ahead of a team that is undefeated, just because that team was off?” - November 4, 2008

See above.

“I cannot believe that Texas Tech jumped from 7 to 2 after barely beating Texas at home. Penn State should be No. 2. The BCS just made a big mistake.” - November 4, 2008

See above.

“Congratulations to Texas Tech for beating Texas in an instant classic. That, however, does not justify their jumping of five spots ahead of Penn State.” - November 4, 2008

See above.

“Alabama has only one win against a ranked team this year, the same as Penn State. The only reason they are ranked ahead of them is because of an opening win against a highly overrated Clemson team. These rankings are garbage that make no sense.” - November 4, 2008

Good job.  Somebody read their Black Shoe Diaries.

“I am done with college football until a playoff system arrives.” - November 4, 2008

Don’t hold your breath.

“A 2-year-old could make a better system for determining a national champion.” - November 4, 2008

OK.  Then what’s your system?

They Don’t Matter!

“As a Penn State fan, I would like to thank the BCS for keeping us ranked No. 3. This guarantees that we will not be playing in a trap game, rather, the team will be playing their hearts out on every play for the rest of the season.” - November 4, 2008

“Guarantees” scares me, but in general, I agree.

On this note, I received this statement in an e-mail from the Penn State Alumni Association yesterday: “Official Penn State Bowl Tour” Planned - With the Nittany Lions’ hard fought victory over the Buckeyes, Penn State fans know JoePa’s 2008 team is going to a BCS bowl-and hoping that it will be the BCS Championship Game. But whether it’s Miami on Jan. 8, Pasadena on Jan. 1, or somewhere else, the Penn State Alumni Association is already planning the “Official Penn State Bowl Tour.”

Do we really know that? Hmmm.

“Penn State fans need to realize that the rankings right now do not mean much. It is where you are in another month. That is when it matters.” - November 4, 2008

Thank you.

You’re Wrong!

“Penn State fans, you should be lucky that the BCS doesn’t factor in strength of schedule anymore. Penn State would be ranked No. 5 if that were the case.” - November 4, 2008

Strength of schedule is in there, my friend.  It’s built into the computer rankings, and that’s why Penn State is ranked No. 4 (computers) instead of No. 2 (humans).

I can’t wait for tomorrow!  Bring on another day of endless and meaningless BCS banter, strength of schedule arguments, hypothetical bowl game matchups and outcomes, and additional nonsense.  It’s going to be great.

“Penn State’s No. 3 ranking is completely bogus. They have played no one, and the Big Ten is one of the weakest conferences in college football.” - October 31, 2008

Here were my predictions for key arguments from the Fan Line following Penn State’s win over Ohio State.

“The Big Ten is still super-weak this year.  Penn State got lucky that Pryor fumbled.  How can Penn State be ranked #3 when they haven’t played anybody respectable other than Ohio State?  Ohio State is just another cupcake.  Paterno is a manager, not a coach.”

This call covers two of my predictions.  I had a hunch that Ohio State would qualify as another “nobody.”

As far as strength of conferences, don’t let ESPN brainwash you too much.  The Big 10 is actually one of the strongest conferences in college football.  I calculate it as 3rd strongest.

Big 12 - 5 teams in the Top 25.  4 of them ranked in the Top 10.
SEC - 4 teams in the Top 25.  3 of them ranked in the Top 10.
Big 10 - 4 teams in the Top 25.  1 ranked in the Top 10.
ACC - 3 - teams ranked in the Top 25.  Florida State leads the charge at #16.
Mountain West - 3 teams ranked in the Top 25 (Utah, TCU, and BYU)
Pac 10 - 2 teams ranked in the Top 25.  USC is ranked #7.  Otherwise, this is an empty conference this year.
Big East - South Florida is the only ranked team (#24), and they’ll be exiting the polls next week.  The UConn/West Virginia winner should enter the Top 25, and Cincinnati may have a shot, and Pitt could have a shot with a win over Notre Dame.
WAC - Boise State is coasting through the WAC.  Only their game against Fresno State will stop them from running the table.
Mid American - Ball State is coasting through the MAC.  Only their game against Central Michigan will stop them from running the table.
CUSA - Tulsa is still undefeated in Conference USA.  Can they survive Arkansas this weekend?

“Isn’t it ironic that Penn State is ranked No. 6 and hasn’t beaten a ranked team of any decency? ” - September 30, 2008

“Mr. Play-it-Safe was afraid to fly…” - You’re having as much trouble with irony as Alanis Morissette.

To be honest, I see nothing ironic about it.  If you choose to completely discount PSU’s wins over Oregon State and Illinois, then you might find Penn State’s #6 ranking undeserved or inappropriate, but certainly not ironic.  I find it more ironic that Penn State’s two best wins, over teams that you consider indecent, have combined to:

a) defeat a team previously ranked #1 in the country, and

b) be the most decent team that #4 ranked Missouri has defeated in 2008 (a 10-point game).

“I cannot understand how Penn State jumped up to No. 6 after playing four cream puffs.” - September 30, 2008

Both Illinois and Oregon State are currently receiving votes in both the AP and USA Today polls.

Apparently, cream puff is the new cupcake.  The concept of polls and the ways in which teams can move up/down in polls is a difficult one for many of you to grasp.  I’ve tried to simplify this concept here.  Penn State was ranked #12 prior to the Illinois game and moved ahead of: USC, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Brigham Young, and Texas Tech.  Four of those teams lost last weekend.  As I mentioned in Poll-Jumping 101, teams generally move down in the polls when they lose.  I also mentioned that teams can move up in the polls following impressive victories.  Penn State’s win over Illinois was impressive enough for voters to place them ahead of Brigham Young and Texas Tech.

“I’ll bet you if Penn State beats Illinois by a higher score, USC will still be ranked higher than Penn State. That tells you how much the pollsters know.” - September 27, 2008

Here’s a question.  If Penn State would have beaten Illinois by a lower score, would have they actually won?

The new polls are out, and apparently you don’t know as much about the pollsters as you think.  The Nittany Lions are ranked #6, and the Trojans are ranked #9.

“Oregon State, just another cupcake team. It has 47 freshmen and 24 sophomores and Oregon State will most likely have a losing record.” - August 12, 2008″

Uh-oh!!  That cupcake is bitter!!

Oregon State 27 - USC 21

“If you look back over the last few years, Oklahoma manages to lose a game, no matter how great they are, even though they’re double-digit favorites. ” - September 23, 2008

If you look back over the last few years, just about everybody has managed to lose a game, no matter how great they were.

The few exceptions are:

2004-05 - USC Trojans, Auburn Tigers, Utah Utes

• Oklahoma went undefeated through the regular season in 2004-05, before losing to USC in the National Championship Game.

2005-06 - Texas Longhorns

2006-07 - Boise State Broncos

“Keep the faith, Ohio State fans, Terrelle Pryor will get a lot of playing time. There is nobody else on their schedule and there will be plenty of blowouts.” - September 17, 2008

First, it was reported today that Terrelle Pryor will be competing for the starting QB job.  Pryor played a significant role in the Buckeyes’ game against USC (even before it was a blowout), so even if Boeckman remains the starter, it appears as though Pryor will get significant playing time… not just mop-up duties.

Secondly, Ohio State still has three teams in the Top 25 on their schedule: Wisconsin, Penn State, and Illinois.  Each should present challenges to the Buckeyes.  As I’ve said before, the Buckeyes are not immune to surprising defeats.  7-3 Illinois came into Columbus last year and knocked off the undefeated Buckeyes.

Finally, don’t you think it’s possible that this year’s Ohio State team is severely overrated?  If not overrated, completely dependent on Beanie Wells?  I’m very unimpressed with:

Ohio State 43 - Youngstown State 0

Ohio State 26 - Ohio 14

USC 35 - Ohio State 3

Ohio State may have a lot more to worry about this season than how much “blowout” time Terrelle Pryor receives.

“If you had Godzilla playing on your football team and you played USC, the No. 1 team in the country, what do you think would happen if Godzilla could not play?” - September 15, 2008

Wow, great question.  I have no idea, actually.

“While Penn State played it safe at home against a team that barely had a pulse, USC came to Charlottesville right in the backyard of Penn State’s recruiting territory and clobbers a Virginia team that last year went to a bowl game and finished 9-4. If you don’t think the kids from those recruiting areas of Washington D.C. and the Tidewater area [of Virginia] aren’t taking a look at the Trojans, then think again. It is no wonder the recruiting at Penn State has dropped off; just keep playing it safe and you will get what you earned.” - September 1, 2008

Wins are wins, but there haven’t been many seasons more deceiving than Virginia’s 9-4 last year.  This team could have easily been 4-9.

- Virginia 22, North Carolina 20

- Virginia 28, Georgia Tech 23

- Virginia 23, Middle Tennessee 21

- Virginia 17, Connecticut 16

- Virginia 18, Maryland 17

- Virginia 17, Wake Forest 16

That 2007-08 Virginia team that squeaked out a 9-4 record returns 11 starters.  This team will be bad in 2008.  Losing to Duke is a serious possibility.

Don’t get me wrong.  USC has a great non-conference schedule this year (as they often do).  Just do more advertising for their matchup with the Buckeyes (and even Notre Dame for that matter), and put a lot less stock on that trip to Charlottesville.