Nov 25 2008

BCS-bound Utah

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“If Utah and Boise State wind up as the only undefeated football teams in the country, then what?” - November 25, 2008

It’s difficult to say.  If you’re suggesting that either of those teams should play in the National Championship Game, please just pack your bags and go home.

I think it’s likely that Utah will get invited to a BCS bowl, but it depends a bit on how the rest of the regular season pans out.

Here is a worst-case scenario (for both Utah and the BCS):

Oregon State wins the Pac 10 and Missouri wins the Big 12.  That would mean that 4 of the 10 BCS spots would be occupied by teams outside of the Top 10 (thank you Big East and ACC).

With only 6 spots remaining, two of them would need to go to Penn State (Big 10 Champion) and the Alabama vs. Florida winner (SEC Champion).

That leaves four remaining spots, and it’s awfully tempting to take: USC, the Alabama vs. Florida loser, and a 2nd Big 12 team.

The leaves one BCS spot and I think Utah would claim it.

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Nov 05 2008

A “Simple” National Championship Solution

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“You take the two top teams in each conference and you have a playoff system. It will never be done because it’s too simple and newspapers wouldn’t have anything to write about.” - November 5, 2008

Okay, our first two-year-old has stepped up to the plate.  You think you have a simple solution on your hands?

Do you mean just the BCS conferences?  That makes a 12-team playoff.  That doesn’t work out evenly into bracket format, so who gets the byes?  What about Utah?  They’re undefeated and ranked #8.  Shouldn’t they get a chance to play for the National Championship?

If you don’t mean just the BCS conferences, that makes a 24-team playoff.  Again, who gets byes?  How are you going to find the time to play all of those games?  Will fans travel to each round of the playoffs?  Where will the games be played?  Troy is the 2nd place team in the Sun Belt Conference.  They’re currently 5-3.  Do they really deserve a chance to win the National Championship?

What about Notre Dame?  Do they need to finally join a conference?  Are they always included in your tournament?  Never included in your tournament?

Finally, since the Big 10 is “super-weak” this year, does 2nd place Ohio State / Michigan State really deserve a shot at the National Championship, when Oklahoma (3rd place in the “super-strong” Big 12 conference stays at home?

What about the bowl games?  The Rose Bowl still wants to exist, and they would really prefer to see a Big 10 team and a Pac 10 team square off.  Have you taken them into consideration?

There’s really nothing simple about it.

Oct 31 2008

Downgrading the Buckeyes and Ranking the Conferences

admin| Category: Penn State Football | 2 Comments

“Penn State’s No. 3 ranking is completely bogus. They have played no one, and the Big Ten is one of the weakest conferences in college football.” - October 31, 2008

Here were my predictions for key arguments from the Fan Line following Penn State’s win over Ohio State.

“The Big Ten is still super-weak this year.  Penn State got lucky that Pryor fumbled.  How can Penn State be ranked #3 when they haven’t played anybody respectable other than Ohio State?  Ohio State is just another cupcake.  Paterno is a manager, not a coach.”

This call covers two of my predictions.  I had a hunch that Ohio State would qualify as another “nobody.”

As far as strength of conferences, don’t let ESPN brainwash you too much.  The Big 10 is actually one of the strongest conferences in college football.  I calculate it as 3rd strongest.

Big 12 - 5 teams in the Top 25.  4 of them ranked in the Top 10.
SEC - 4 teams in the Top 25.  3 of them ranked in the Top 10.
Big 10 - 4 teams in the Top 25.  1 ranked in the Top 10.
ACC - 3 - teams ranked in the Top 25.  Florida State leads the charge at #16.
Mountain West - 3 teams ranked in the Top 25 (Utah, TCU, and BYU)
Pac 10 - 2 teams ranked in the Top 25.  USC is ranked #7.  Otherwise, this is an empty conference this year.
Big East - South Florida is the only ranked team (#24), and they’ll be exiting the polls next week.  The UConn/West Virginia winner should enter the Top 25, and Cincinnati may have a shot, and Pitt could have a shot with a win over Notre Dame.
WAC - Boise State is coasting through the WAC.  Only their game against Fresno State will stop them from running the table.
Mid American - Ball State is coasting through the MAC.  Only their game against Central Michigan will stop them from running the table.
CUSA - Tulsa is still undefeated in Conference USA.  Can they survive Arkansas this weekend?

Oct 03 2008

Oregon State Strikes Again… Almost

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“Oregon State is not a creampuff; they’re from the Pac-10. They went 10-3 last year and won three bowl games the last three seasons.” - October 3, 2008

… and last night they gave Utah all that they wanted and more.  It took a last-second field goal for the Utes to survive Oregon State, 31-28.

Sep 23 2008

Oklahoma: Losing Sooner or Later

admin| Category: College Football (Non PSU/Pitt) | 1 Comment

“If you look back over the last few years, Oklahoma manages to lose a game, no matter how great they are, even though they’re double-digit favorites. ” - September 23, 2008

If you look back over the last few years, just about everybody has managed to lose a game, no matter how great they were.

The few exceptions are:

2004-05 - USC Trojans, Auburn Tigers, Utah Utes

  • Oklahoma went undefeated through the regular season in 2004-05, before losing to USC in the National Championship Game.

2005-06 - Texas Longhorns

2006-07 - Boise State Broncos

© 2008 Fix the Fan Line